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Why Museveni Will Win — And Why It’s Good for the Country and the Region



By Bwire Jonathan

Crown Media East Africa

As Uganda moves toward another election cycle, one reality continues to define its political horizon: President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is likely to win again. This is not simply a domestic political event, but a regional dynamic shaped by security realities, economic interdependence, and the broader geopolitical configuration of East and Central Africa.

Uganda stands in a delicate regional neighborhood surrounded by nations struggling with either post-conflict recovery or chronic instability. South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Somalia remain fragile, and Uganda’s role as a stabilizing force has become indispensable. Over the years, Museveni’s leadership — though often criticized for its longevity — has provided a consistent framework of security and predictability. In regional geopolitics, continuity can sometimes matter more than popularity.

Uganda’s defense forces have become central to regional peace enforcement. From Somalia’s AMISOM mission to interventions in eastern Congo, the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) has projected stability beyond national borders. Its discipline and structure reflect decades of consolidation under a unified command. Any abrupt political change without a well-managed security transition could compromise that stability, potentially unsettling the region’s fragile equilibrium.

Economically, Uganda occupies a strategic position within the East African Community (EAC). It acts as a logistical and political bridge between coastal and landlocked states. The flow of goods from Mombasa to eastern Congo and South Sudan depends on Uganda’s internal calm. Investors and regional actors view Kampala as a predictable partner — and in geopolitics, predictability remains one of the most valuable assets a nation can offer.

Still, the question of succession cannot be ignored. Uganda’s next chapter requires a carefully managed transition — one anchored in experience and statecraft rather than emotion or populism. The emergence of another general, one capable of balancing political vision with security intelligence, will be vital for both national continuity and regional stability. The transition must preserve Uganda’s strategic assets: a disciplined army, strong intelligence systems, and a foreign policy rooted in pragmatic regional engagement.

Across the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes region, Uganda plays the role of a balancing power. Its internal calm has often been the silent guarantee of peace in neighboring states. A leadership crisis in Kampala would not stop at Uganda’s borders; it would reverberate through a region already stretched by conflict and economic strain.

Museveni’s expected victory, therefore, represents more than an internal political outcome. It functions as a geopolitical stabilizer — a bridge of continuity while the country prepares its next stabilizing force. His rule, however extended, buys Uganda and the region time: time to build stronger institutions, prepare a disciplined successor, and maintain the fragile balance upon which East Africa’s security rests.

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