Competitive Samia Bugwe Central MP Race: October 2024 opinions Poll

The Crown media East Africa publications

The above visualization provides an overview of the latest opinion poll results for the Samia Bugwe Central MP race as of October 2024. The poll surveyed a sample of 2,0000 people from four sub-counties and one town council in the region, with sample sizes distributed as follows: Buhehe Subcounty (5000), Masaba Subcounty (5000), Masafu Subcounty (4000), Masinya Subcounty (4000), and Masafu Town Council (2000). Hamala leads with 30%, while Patrick closely follows at 28%, making it a competitive race. The chart below highlights the standings of each candidate, emphasizing the distribution of support.

Current Ranking:

1. Hamala – 30%

2. Patrick – 28%

3. Mbaha – 13%

4. Nyangweso – 8%

5. Ngwebe – 5%

6. Erick – 3%

7. Bwire – 3%

8. James – 3%

9. Hughes – 3%

10. Job – 3%

11. Wafula Estone – 1%

Key Takeaways:

1. Hamala maintains his lead at 30%, with Patrick’s strong 28% indicating a competitive race.

2. Nyangweso’s support has dropped to 8%, reflecting a decline from previous standings.

3. Mbaha’s support reaches 13%, securing him third place.

4. Ngwebe and trailing candidates—Erick, Bwire, James, Hughes, and Job—follow with lower support percentages, ranging from 5% to 3%, while Wafula Estone holds at 1%.

Considerations for Interpretation:

1. Polls are indicative, not definitive, and may not precisely predict election outcomes.

2. Margin of error could affect result accuracy, suggesting potential shifts among candidates.

3. Voter turnout—not factored in here—can notably impact the final election results.

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